Sixty-six percent of respondents to a newly released survey said they expect rental rate increases of 3% to 7% over the next 12 months for active adult, independent living, assisted living and memory care communities.
Participants in the 13th edition of CBRE’s Senior Housing & Care Investor Survey primarily were private or institutional investors, brokers or developers. The survey was conducted in October, and results were released in December.
No respondents said they anticipate rent decreases for any long-term care asset class.
The highest percentage of participants said they expected senior living and care rate increases of 3% to 7% over the next 12 months, with 72% of respondents in this group predicting such increases at continuing care retirement / life plan communities, 63.3% anticipating them at active adult communities, 61.3% expecting them at independent living communities, 56.3% predicting them at assisted living communities and 53.1% anticipating them at memory care communities. By comparison, 47.8% in this group said they expect such increases at SNFs.
Of those who said they expect rent growth greater than 7%, 28.1% predicted that it will occur in assisted living, 25% anticipated that it will happen in memory care, 19.4% said that it will take place in independent living, 13.3% predicted that it will occur in active adult, and 4% anticipated that it will happen at CCRCs. By comparison, no respondents said that rent growth of this level will take place in skilled nursing.
Of those who said they expect rent growth of 1% to 3% over the next 12 months, 20% said they expect it in active adult, 16.1% said they predict it for independent living, 15.6% said they anticipate it for memory care and 12.5% said they expect it in assisted living. By comparison, 43.5% said they anticipate rate increases of this level for SNFs.
Some respondents predicted no change in rates for CCRCs (12%), memory care communities (6.3%), active adult communities (3.3%), independent living communities (3.2%) and assisted living communities (3.1%). By comparison 12% of respondents predicted no rate increase for nursing homes.
The full report is available here.
